Saturday, February 11, 2017

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Hi Guys..penulis hari ini mencoba merangkum korelasi korelasi variable yang bisa menguncang,menyebabkan resesi/depresi ekonomi dunia dan bagaimana mengantisipasinya... ya kembali lagi ke emas, emas bullion. Setidaknya dianjurkan kita mempunyai 10-15 aset kita berupa emas bullion dalam mengantisipasi crash paper aset. 
Friday, 31st March 2017:


By Friday, 31st March 2017...
Britain will have finally begun its exit from Europe.
But as it does, trigger-happy traders and bitter EU bureaucrats could unleash a devastating attack on the Great British Pound... forcing its value to plummet... and making you instantly poorer.

We are living through the biggest global currency war in the last century. I'm writing to you today, because I believe, right now, the UK could be hit by one of the biggest single moves we've seen in the currency war so far..

Brexit was just the beginning... what's going to happen now will be even more dramatic.
There have been certain financial crises that took a year or more to play out... the best example I can think of is the 1997-98 crisis, which I was involved in personally.
That came to a head in August and September of 1998 when Wall Street got together to bail out the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management.

That particular crisis was about to take down the entire financial system, before we prevented it. But did you know that crisis actually started a year before in June 1997... when Thailand devalued their currency?
I'm looking at Brexit the same way...
June 23rd 2016. That was the vote.
But that was just the beginning... 

The snowflake that starts an avalanche

The avalanche is yet to fall...
Indeed, you might think you've seen the last of the fallout, but that is NOT the case.
The most dramatic effects are yet to come.
After the shock result of the EU referendum on June 23rd, the pound fell against the US dollar to 30+ year lows. It went from $1.50 to $1.30 in a heartbeat.

And then there was the 'flash crash' that saw the pound fall by 6% in a matter of seconds. It recovered most of that when it was claimed automated algorithms were responsible. But it shows just how fragile the pound is right now.

I'm writing today to tell you that the worst is yet to come.
The drop after Brexit is only part of the story. That was a reaction to the vote… it wasn't priced in. Brexit hasn't really happened yet.

There are years of negotiation ahead, there are notices, there is uncertainty... and as I’m sure you know, markets hate nothing more than uncertainty.

They can price for Brexit, they can price for remain... but what they can't price for is the uncertainty that goes around the negotiations for Brexit… how it's going to look and how it's going to play out.
That uncertainty alone is making the markets incredibly sensitive right now...

…and dangerously vulnerable to unexpected shocks.
For you, the key thing to remember is that the vote alone caused the 30+ year historic lows. So ask yourself...

What happens when Brexit itself happens?
What happens if the negotiations don't go well?
What happens if Germany or France or the UK's other trading partners take a hard line?

How far can it go?
The answer to those question is, of course, impossible... the truth is no one can predict 100% how far the pound could fall... how much value it could potentially drop.
But we do know the UK has been losing weight in the global economy for decades. It's only natural that the currency must be repositioned too...

What we also know is that since the 1970s, the pound has fallen by around 30% on 3 separate occasions after similar shocks...
First in the late 1970s, again when the UK left the ERM... and finally as a result of the global financial crisis.
Now we have Brexit…
And the Prime Minister has confirmed that by Friday, 31st March 2017...

Britain will have finally begun reclaiming its independence from Europe.
But as it does, trigger-happy traders and bitter EU bureaucrats could once again unleash a devastating attack on the Great British Pound... forcing its value to plummet... and making you instantly poorer.

What would another 30%+ drop mean today?

The shock to the system Brexit could cause could not only see sterling become equal with the dollar...

It could actually become worth less than a dollar.

Imagine... one US dollar worth MORE than one British pound.
Few people in Britain can imagine trading their pound and only receiving a single dollar. And the idea that a single pound coin wouldn't even buy you one dollar seems insane...
But it's a very real possibility and you need to be aware of that possibility.

Understanding this will give you an edge in the market.

Look, you're not helpless; there are things you can do. There are trading strategies you can pursue right now to protect you against this kind of shock devaluation.

But you must act before 31st March 2017.
In fact, even then it might be too late...
Think of the other factors that could trigger this shocking drop in pound sterling… the potential triggers are many.

It might be the introduction of NIRPs ('Negative Interest Rate Policies') in the UK… a forced general election could cause even more uncertainty… an external political event – like the US election for example – could cause the same shock.

Or it might indeed be the triggering of Article 50.

Whatever the trigger, the fallout could be immediate. That’s why it’s so important you act quickly and decisively.

Worst of All:
The Bank Of England Want This

It may come as a shock to the people of Britain but the Bank of England actually wants a weaker pound.

Why would that be true?
Well, the Bank of England wants inflation... they have an inflation goal that they have not been able to reach for years. That's publicly known.

What's less understood is how central banks actually get inflation...
They used to believe that by printing money they would get inflation. But what they discovered is that printing money alone doesn't do it – as well as printing the money, people need to spend it too.

But that's not happening. The money is being printed, but it's just sitting un-deposited at the Bank of England as excess reserves.

So the Bank of England has to try another technique... which is to cheapen the pound.
Sure, if you cheapen the pound it means every time you buy imported goods, or you travel abroad, take a Swiss vacation, enjoy French wine, or buy Chinese technology...

Whatever you buy is going to cost more if your currency is worth less. It’s a disadvantage to you BUT it does cause inflation...

And it’s that’s what Mark Carney and the Bank of England want.

They won't ever say it in so many words. But they know that a weaker pound leads to higher prices, and that is what they want. Inflation is currently below the Bank of England's 2% target, so rising prices are a priority.

There’s also the impact on exports... Britain's trade deficit will get a boost if a weaker pound leads to more exports. Britain has wonderful technology, competing with Germany and other countries around the world. And the fact is, you can sell more if your currency is worth less.

Oh, and then there’s the gold problem... the UK only has 310 tonnes of the stuff. If you look at what I call the “gold to GDP ratio” i.e. the amount of gold a country has in its reserves relative to its GDP.

  • The US gold to GDP ratio is about 2%...
  • Russia's is about the same, also about 2%.
  • The European Central Bank, taking the Eurozone as a whole, all of its members, is closer to 4%. They’re the biggest gold power in the world.
The UK?
It’s pathetic... way below 1%.

This means the UK is missing the same monetary insurance policy that other countries have in terms of their gold holdings.

It all adds up to a very fragile situation for the UK and specifically the pound.
So, if you're invested in UK assets... that could be a real threat.

What can you do about it?
Well, one essential thing I believe every investor should do is buy gold.

I know that most Brits haven't bought any gold... Or haven't bought enough.
Worse yet, many people have bought exactly the wrong kind of gold.

They can use gold (the #1 asset in a currency crisis) tonot only prepare and survive – but THRIVE – in the coming financial collapse.

You see, when you look at the hardest times we’ve faced in the West – the Great Depression, World War II, the stagflation of 1970s, for example – there were always a few who made fortunes. Many of these saw the crisis coming and took the right steps beforehand to prepare.

Wealth was simply transferred from unprepared investors to those who took action.

This time will be no different.
And, as history has shown time and again, one of the best ways to ensure you’ll be on the winning side of this massive wealth transfer is by owning gold.

The #1 Asset in a Currency Collapse

Gold is an essential store of value that protects wealth and purchasing power when currencies collapse. Just look at a few of the worst meltdowns of the past two decades.
Gold wins:

Even in the absolute worst currency crisis of the last 100 years – the crash of the Hungarian Pengo in 1946 – gold saved the wealth and purchasing power of those who owned it.

When the currency collapsed, one gold coin became worth 47 QUINTILLION paper currency units (that’s an astronomical number with 30 zeroes!).

Here’s another thing to keep in mind…
When the collapse happens, it’s going to happen quickly. You won’t see it coming. There won’t be time to run out and buy gold, and it probably will not even be available at that stage.
My point is, DO NOT wait to buy your gold.

Whenever the crunch comes, the large players – the institutions, the central banks, the hedge funds, and the customers with relationships with the refiners – are the ones who are going to get all the gold available. Small investors will find they can’t get any.

Your local dealer will be sold out and back-ordered. The Mint will stop taking orders. Meanwhile, what’s happening with the price? It could be going up more than $100 an ounce per day, more than $1,000 per week. It’s running away from you. You want it, but you can’t buy it. That’s what a buying panic looks like.

 IN SHORT: the time to build your personal gold reserve is now, before the crisis unfolds.

Remember, gold has never been valued at zero. It’s a track record that spans all of human history, beating all other assets hands down. These are dangerous times, when paper assets (including cash) can be severely impaired or even wiped out. That makes gold an essential part of a genuinely prepared portfolio.


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